2017 Pool wrap-up

Baseball fans:

Congratulations to Brian Wells, winner of the 2017 MLB Predictions Pool! In his seventh year of competition, Brian becomes our thirteenth new winner in thirteen years.

• Two unique picks were made this year, both by Bob English: Alex Colomé for AL saves, and Jeff Samardzija in the NL IP category. Bob was also one of only two entrants to choose Charlie Blackmon for NL runs.

• This year is only the second time we've averaged over four correct picks poolwide. We're still a bit short of the 2010 mean score of 5.5...

• For the first time in pool history, each of our ten pitching categories (AL and NL) was correctly predicted by at least one entrant.

• Harvey Hawkins led the pool with 51 HBPs. Harvey attends Central Park East 1 elementary school in East Harlem, and will be rooting for the Yankees in tonight's AL Wild Card game.

• Danton Boller had his strongest finish to date this year, and Garrett Schwab matched his personal best.

Here are the season category leaders, with bold indicating players we actually chose:

AL BA: José Altuve (11)

AL HR: Aaron Judge

AL RBI: Nelson Cruz

AL R: Aaron Judge

AL SB: Whit Merrifield

NL BA: Charlie Blackmon

NL HR: Giancarlo Stanton (2)

NL RBI: Giancarlo Stanton

NL R: Charlie Blackmon (2)

NL SB: Dee Gordon

AL IP: Chris Sale (6)

AL W: Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber (4), Jason Vargas

AL ERA: Corey Kluber (10)

AL SO: Chris Sale (8)

AL S: Alex Colomé (1)

NL IP: Jeff Samardzija (1)

NL W: Clayton Kershaw (6)

NL ERA: Clayton Kershaw (12)

NL SO: Max Scherzer (11)

NL S: Greg Holland, Kenley Jansen (13)

AL HBP: Carlos Gómez

NL HBP: Anthony Rizzo (10)

AL HBP: José Berríos, Mike Fiers, Charlie Morton

NL HBP: Jhoulys Chacín, José Ureña

​

Thanks to Bob for joining us this year, and congrats to Brian for winning a close race. We sincerely hope you all had as much fun as we did, and we look forward to seeing you all again in 2018!

-Jud and Dan

PS- all major league teams begin the season on March 29th next year, so start cracking the books early!

October 2, 2017

There were some category shakeups in the season's final days (Giancarlo Stanton won the NL RBI title, Dee Gordon knocked Billy Hamilton out of the top spot in NL SB, and Kenley Jansen tied Greg Holland in NL Saves), but ultimately, it had little effect on the actual standings.

Congratulations to your 2017 MLB Predictions Pool Winner, Brian Wells! Brian is the 13th unique winner in the pool's 13-year history. Only one person has finished first twice...Sid Harris, who shared the top spot with Jeff Gatland in 2012, after being the inaugural winner in 2005.

October 1, 2017

September 30, 2017

September 29, 2017

With a three-game lead with three games to go, Fangraphs gives the Red Sox a 98.9% chance of winning the AL East. While our algorithm isn't quite as scientific -- Jud says 98% and Dan says 99% -- Brian has about the same chance of finishing in at least a tie for first in the pool.

Daniel Murphy made a little more headway than Joey Votto towards winning the NL batting title this week, but both sit at .319, nine points behind Charlie Blackmon's .328. It's still not impossible for either of these guys to overtake Blackmon, but it's looking less and less likely.

Still the most realistic scenario that could shake up the top spot is Jose Altuve regaining a share of the AL SB lead, and Brian and Danton sharing the grand prize.

Mike Levine's outside chance still exists as well, but with one modification. Based on the scenario we outlined the other day, Chris Sale's failure to get a win this week, and the likelihood he won't pitch again, would seem to have doomed Mike's chances. However, Corey Kluber failing to get a win Saturday combined with a Jason Vargas win on Sunday would accomplish the same thing. If that happens, Altuve regains his share of the AL SB lead (he trails Whit Merrifield and Cameron Maybin by one), Giancarlo Stanton beats out Nolan Arenado for the NL RBI title (they're currently tied), Greg Holland holds off Kenley Jansen in NL saves (Holland leads by one), and Levine maintains his one HBP lead over Brian and Danton, Mike will be the winner.

September 28, 2017

September 27, 2017

Sale shelled (5IP, 5ER, 4HR, 8K)