September 30, 2017

September 29, 2017

With a three-game lead with three games to go, Fangraphs gives the Red Sox a 98.9% chance of winning the AL East. While our algorithm isn't quite as scientific -- Jud says 98% and Dan says 99% -- Brian has about the same chance of finishing in at least a tie for first in the pool.

Daniel Murphy made a little more headway than Joey Votto towards winning the NL batting title this week, but both sit at .319, nine points behind Charlie Blackmon's .328. It's still not impossible for either of these guys to overtake Blackmon, but it's looking less and less likely.

Still the most realistic scenario that could shake up the top spot is Jose Altuve regaining a share of the AL SB lead, and Brian and Danton sharing the grand prize.

Mike Levine's outside chance still exists as well, but with one modification. Based on the scenario we outlined the other day, Chris Sale's failure to get a win this week, and the likelihood he won't pitch again, would seem to have doomed Mike's chances. However, Corey Kluber failing to get a win Saturday combined with a Jason Vargas win on Sunday would accomplish the same thing. If that happens, Altuve regains his share of the AL SB lead (he trails Whit Merrifield and Cameron Maybin by one), Giancarlo Stanton beats out Nolan Arenado for the NL RBI title (they're currently tied), Greg Holland holds off Kenley Jansen in NL saves (Holland leads by one), and Levine maintains his one HBP lead over Brian and Danton, Mike will be the winner.

September 28, 2017

September 27, 2017

Sale shelled (5IP, 5ER, 4HR, 8K)

September 26, 2017

While there are still a number of undecided categories, it's looking like the pool is Brian's to lose at this point. Here are a few scenarios that have an outside chance to prove that assumption wrong:

• Other than Brian, Danton still looks to have the best chance to finish in the money. All else equal, if Jose Altuve can regain his NL SB lead, Danton and Brian will finish tied (unless Tanner Roark beans four or more batters tomorrow night, in which case Jud has a chance). 
• Assuming his HBP advantage holds up, Mike Levine appears to have the best chance to knock Brian completely out of the top spot, but several things have to happen: Altuve has to retake the AL SB lead, Nolan Arenado has to lose the NL RBI crown, Chris Sale has to tie for the AL wins lead (assuming tonight will be his final start), and Greg Holland has to hold off Kenley Jansen in NL saves. 
• There are scenarios that involve Joey Votto or Daniel Murphy going on a late-season tear and winning the NL batting title that could result in Dan or Garrett winning. More on those scenarios later this week, if they become more relevant. 

September 25, 2017

Kluber alone atop AL wins

September 24, 2017

September 23, 2017

With a little over a week to go in the season, here's where we stand in the categories that are still in play:

• Whit Merrifield passed Jose Altuve for the AL SB lead this week. This development knocks Danton Boller out of a first place tie with Brian Wells. Merrifield's lead, however, is just 33-32, with Cameron Maybin right behind at 31. 
• In the NL SB race, with Billy Hamilton out due to injury and without a steal since September 2, Dee Gordon (with 8 since 9/2) has cut the lead to 2. Hamilton returned to the lineup last night, but this category is no longer a gimme. Most of the contenders picked Hamilton, but Michael Orobona could benefit if he's unable to hang onto his lead. 
• Nolan Arenado will probably hang onto the NL RBI lead, but Giancarlo Stanton had 4- and 3-RBI games this week and now trails by 5. A few of the non-primary contenders would benefit from Arenado dropping from the top spot. 
• Both leagues' wins leads are three-way ties for first at 17. In the AL, Corey Kluber and Chris Sale are neck-and-neck with Jason Vargas. In the NL, Clayton Kershaw is trying to keep pace with Zack Davies and Zack Greinke. A lot could happen in the final week here, but Mark Watzke's chances at winning this thing could hinge on the Sale-Kluber matchup.
• Kenley Jansen earned his 40th save last night, which would have tied him with Greg Holland for the NL lead if Holland didn't notch his 41st on the same night. A bunch of contenders will gain a point if Jansen at least ties for the lead here, most notably Jud Ehrbar and current leader Brian Wells. 

As you can see, there's still a lot that's undecided with 8-9 games to go. We'll try to do a couple of mid-week updates during the week as the season winds down. Good luck everyone!

September 22, 2017

September 21, 2017

Sale back in AL wins, Altuve out in steals; Brian alone in first place...

September 20, 2017

September 19, 2017

September 18, 2017

Kluber alone in AL W lead...

September 17, 2017

September 16, 2017

The pool this year could very well be decided by the outcomes of the wins leaders in both leagues. Among our top three, Danton Boller needs both Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw to hold onto their shares of their respective league leads. Brian Wells would benefit from Kershaw dropping from the top spot and Kluber remaining, while Watzke would like to see both Kluber and Kershaw unseated.

Avisail Garcia has gone 10-for-14 in the past three games, increasing his batting average from .322 to .334 in the process. He now trails Jose Altuve (.347) for the AL lead by a slightly greater margin than his increase over those three days. Boller and Mike Levine would benefit the most if Altuve loses the batting title.

The moral of this story...neither league's batting crown is a sure thing. In the NL, Charlie Blackmon's (.332) lead over Bryce Harper (.326) and Justin Turner (.325) is even less, with Daniel Murphy (.319) and Joey Votto (.318) still within long-shot range. If either of those latter two goes on a late-season tear, it could really shake things up.

Cameron Maybin has tied Altuve for the AL lead in steals. This, obviously, will be a major development if Maybin can take over the lead outright. As we said last week, Boller and Levine will be hurt the most if Altuve can't hold on.

With just over two weeks to go in the season, I don't think there is a clear favorite to win the pool at this point.

September 15, 2017

September 14, 2017

September 13, 2017

​Kluber, Kershaw gain shares in AL/NL wins...

September 12, 2017

September 11, 2017

Zach Davies passes Kershaw in NL wins...

September 10, 2017

In our last full update on August 26, we discussed the imminent fall from the top spot for Mark Watzke after a fairly long stretch of pool dominance. Since that time, Danton Boller, Garrett Schwab, Brian Wells and Mike Levine have all held or shared first place for a day or more, but today's update finds Watzke back on top.

Chris Sale earning his 16th win last night and taking over sole possession of the AL lead in that category is the key development, with Boller and Wells, as well as Jud Ehrbar and Dan McCloskey dropping a point due to Corey Kluber falling out of the top spot. The Dodgers' failure to provide Kenley Jansen with any save opportunities has also proven to be beneficial to Mark, as both Boller and Wells have Jansen in this category.

Another key development from yesterday is the Jimmy Nelson injury, with the Brewers announcing their top starting pitcher is out for the season. Among the pool's top ten, only Ehrbar, Levine and Schwab didn't pick Nelson for their NL HBP pitcher, so his injury could help their chances in our tiebreaker category.

Other statistical races to keep an eye on during the season's final month:

• Clayton Kershaw is currently in a three-way tie for NL wins. Should he fall in this category, it will be a detriment to the pool chances for Bohler, Ehrbar, McCloskey, Schwab and Michael Orobona.
• Jose Altuve only leads Cameron Maybin for AL stolen bases by one, with several others only three steals behind. Boller and Levine will be hurt most if Altuve can't hold on. 
• Giancarlo Stanton has 40 RBI to Nolan Arenado's 26 since August 1 and now trails by just four in this category. Somewhat surprisingly, no one picked Stanton to win NL RBI, but Levine, McCloskey, Schwab and Jason Salavon would gain a point on the other contenders (Boller, Wells, Watzke, Ehrbar, Orobona, Daltry/Lovejoy) if Arenado should fall. 

With the season ending three weeks from today, it still appears as if almost half of the pool still has at least an outside chance to win it. Obviously, some have lesser chances than others, but it's shaping up for our race to emulate the messy AL wild card race, and that's surely a good thing. 

September 9, 2017

September 8, 2017

Kluber ties Sale for AL W lead...

September 7, 2017

September 6, 2017

Watzke leads; Arenado RBI is in, Jansen saves is out.

September 5, 2017

Arenado slips in NL RBI; Garrett moves into first place.

September 4, 2017

September 3, 2017

September 2, 2017

Danton and Brian lead; teammates Kershaw and Jansen earn points...

September 1, 2017

Kershaw drops NL W category, but set tonight to make first start since July 23rd.