September 29, 2017

With a three-game lead with three games to go, Fangraphs gives the Red Sox a 98.9% chance of winning the AL East. While our algorithm isn't quite as scientific -- Jud says 98% and Dan says 99% -- Brian has about the same chance of finishing in at least a tie for first in the pool.

Daniel Murphy made a little more headway than Joey Votto towards winning the NL batting title this week, but both sit at .319, nine points behind Charlie Blackmon's .328. It's still not impossible for either of these guys to overtake Blackmon, but it's looking less and less likely.

Still the most realistic scenario that could shake up the top spot is Jose Altuve regaining a share of the AL SB lead, and Brian and Danton sharing the grand prize.

Mike Levine's outside chance still exists as well, but with one modification. Based on the scenario we outlined the other day, Chris Sale's failure to get a win this week, and the likelihood he won't pitch again, would seem to have doomed Mike's chances. However, Corey Kluber failing to get a win Saturday combined with a Jason Vargas win on Sunday would accomplish the same thing. If that happens, Altuve regains his share of the AL SB lead (he trails Whit Merrifield and Cameron Maybin by one), Giancarlo Stanton beats out Nolan Arenado for the NL RBI title (they're currently tied), Greg Holland holds off Kenley Jansen in NL saves (Holland leads by one), and Levine maintains his one HBP lead over Brian and Danton, Mike will be the winner.